Mathnificent Word of the Week

Originally posted on
January 24, 2023

martingale

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martingale

/ˈmärtnˌɡāl/

noun

A sequence of random variables for which, at a particular time, the average value that's expected to appear next is equal to the present value, no matter what all the prior values were.

“After some consideration, Kristan was excited about making a martingale decision and venturing down a new path.”

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What a lovely sounding word for something that has everything to do with risk.

The original usage of the word was with gambling to describe a betting system where when a bet was lost, one would double-down on their next bet, continuing that method until they won. The assumption was that probability dictated that, eventually, they’d have to win at some point. Of course, that was fruitful if and only if all other things were equal – and the gambler had infinite $$$ to bet with. There’s also a variation that, when a win does happen, the next bet is half of the prior, and the betting continues till the gambler breaks even.

The Martingale System was adopted (and adapted) by early 20th century mathematicians who worked in Probability Theory; it’s their definition that I’m referencing today. It also clearly calls out a randomness factor from start to finish.

Yesterday I realized that I am already assessing my own 2023 goal progress (yeah, just a few weeks into the new year ) and since I’m such a fiend about planning out each and every step in a plan and looking for patterns to success, the unexpected things – good or bad – rarely happen. This stirred up the memory of what someone said to lil ol’ risk-adverse me a handful of years ago.

“If you keep trying to study the risk out of risk, you’re going to miss an opportunity.”

Dang it.

So I offer to each of you the consideration to, occasionally, put on your Martingale Glasses™️ – especially when you might be about to immerse yourself into a time-suck of investigating the path to a guaranteed outcome. Take a step (or two or three) in an unknown direction that has a chance to reward you with something you hadn’t known of and that you’d deem to be as equally good – or maybe even greater – than the direction you’re most familiar with.

I know you’re smart so always check your gut first, know your personal risk boundaries, and be aware of all who may be affected by any decisions you’d make. But, hey, sometimes the law of probability is bound to go in your favor, right?!?


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